Pressure Bad
New US-led patrols in the Persian Gulf raise the stakes with Iran (September 2, 2019). Meanwhile, Iran finds itself backed into a corner and ready for a possible conflict it had 30 years for which to prepare. It stands poised this week to further break the terms of its 2015 nuclear deal with world powers, over a year after President Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew America from the accord and imposed crippling sanctions on the country. “It is plausible to imagine a scenario where these forces stumble into some type of accidental escalation,” said Becca Wasser, a senior policy analyst at the RAND Corp. who studies the region. “While U.S. efforts are intended to deter, Iran may view increased U.S. maritime presence as offensive in nature or as preparation for a larger attack on Iran and respond accordingly.”
Trump’s Maximum pressure campaign will yield few results (6-5-19). Washington’s strategy towards Tehran seems to backlash and is not expected to lead to amendment of the nuclear deal nor to a substantive change in Iran’s regional policy.
Don’t believe the war hype on Iran (5-28-19). President Donald Trump’s maximum pressure campaign is in many ways a continuation of the status-quo policy—but it is more effectively backing Iran into a corner, which is likely to result in a crisis or war.
Trump is driving Iran into Russia’s arms (2019). US economic and military pressure on Iran is improving Russia-Iran relations.
A nuclear crisis with Iran (2019) – End of the article: Here’s my concern: Maximum pressure won’t topple the regime, strengthen moderate voices in Iran, or resolve any of the other differences Washington has with Tehran. Instead, it is more likely to encourage Iran to resume nuclear development and eventually restart a nuclear weapons program, which it is not—repeat, not—doing at present. Think about it: North Korea’s Kim Jong Un has his relatives and rivals murdered and runs a brutal police state, and he gets to have private meetings with Trump, who says the two of them “fell in love” (whatever the hell that means). Why does Kim get treated this way? Because North Korea has a growing nuclear weapons arsenal.
No Iran Threat
The Iranian missile threat (2019). Though Cordesman doesn’t draw any strong conclusions, there is a lot of evidence in here that tempers any Iran threat.
Crisis Escalation
The Iran war crisis: Are we headed toward a Gulf of Tonkin incident? (2019). One can only hope that an isolated incident or an alleged attack does not spark a retaliation that could lead to a Vietnam-style conflict with Iran, one that could necessitate sending hundreds of thousands of U.S. troops to the Middle East. While President Trump has said he does not want to go to war with Iran, President Johnson likewise did not want to start a war with North Vietnam. But one cannot overlook National Security Advisor John Bolton, who recently said, “Any attack on America or its allies will be met with unrelenting force.”
An open letter to US President Donald Trump on war with Iran (2019). This letter from 100+ military leaders says a war with Iran could escalate and won’t solve anything.
Impacts
The Iran war: Consequences for regional allies (2019). This article says a war with Iran will escalate to involve many countries and interests in the Middle East.
The Last War — and the Next (2019). This article reviews new research on Iraq and why the war failed. It then situates that discussion in the context of the current potential war in Iran, its likely failure, and its risk of escalation.
Iran could do some serious damage if attacked (2019). This article describes how Iran could escalate the war and the impacts an attack would cause.
Sanctions
General
Can Iran withstand US pressure? (5-30-19). This article says that Iran will try to wait out the Trump administration but that surviving sanctions will be tough.
Sanctions fail/Sanctions Bad
The US is already fighting an economic war with Iran that is hurting the wrong people (2019)
US sanctions on Iran are designed to kill (2019). US sanctions are killing ordinary Iranians by the thousands. Through its control over the world banking system, America’s sanctioning power flouts international human rights law and poses a threat to the world.
More Articles
The Iran crisis and the ghosts of the Gulf of Tonkin (2019)
Iran slams very dangerous US deployment (2019)
Trump is sending 1500 troops to the Middle East as the standoff continues (2019)
US moves to the Middle East to counter Iran (2019)
Why America’s Iran policy doesn’t have international support (2019)
Even conservative Iranians want closer ties to the US (2019)
US and Iran: Beyond the Rhetoric (2019)
America must not stumble into war with Iran (2019)
Pentagon’s plan to send 10,000 troops to the Middle East is about Iran (2019)
Tensions are riding high with Iran, but no one wants war (2019)
US-Iran stand-off may be cooling off (2019)
Trump’s Iran sanctions are working, but it’ll take more time to topple the regime (2019)
The missing piece in Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign (2019)
Saudi Arabia and Israel are pushing the US to confront Iran (2019)
War with Iran would be a disaster (2019)
Is a military confrontation with Iran inevitable? (2019)
We led successful negotiations with Iran. Trump’s approach isn’t working (2019)
There’s no compelling reason for the US to go to war with Iran — Yet (2019)
How to prevent an accidental war with Iran (2019)
Beware the tides of war with Iran (2019)
What war with Iran would mean for the Kurds (2019)
Washington has become a war mongers paradise (2019)
Beware of the Tides of War with Iran (5-20-19)
A path to war with Iran (5-20-19). In 2017, when I imagined various ways the United States might stumble into a conflict, I got some things right and some things wrong. What I certainly failed to anticipate was that two years further on, we would be relying on the instincts of Donald Trump to keep us out of war
Hawks divided (2019)
Iran is scaring its friends, too (2019)
Who wins when Iran-US tensions rise? China (5-17-19)
What’s Trump’s Iran plan? Nobody knows (5-16-19)
Trump’s counter-Iran moves are provocative, but they are not war (5-17-19)
America must not stumble into a third Gulf war (5-15-19)
How Donald Trump may push America into war with Iran (5-15-19)
Is Bolton’s war with Iran really becoming a hot one? (5-14-19)
Bolton in Wonderland (5-14-19)
Trump’s hired hands want a war with Iran (5-14-19)
Iran and US mobilizations could lead to conflict (5-9-19)
Iranians will tolerate hardship but not capitulation (2019)
Escalating US-Iran tensions (2019)
John Bolton’s Middle East War plans (5-9-19)
Trump’s Iran policy is making war more likely (5-8-19)
Echos of Iraq in Trump’s confrontation with Iran (5-8-19)
Trump’s Iran policy is becoming more dangerous (5-7-19)
Iran sends a threat and Europe scrambles (5-8-19)
Diplomacy is the best way forward with Iran (5-6-19)
Trump’s Iran strategy lacks a regional outlook (5-6-19)
The art of a new Iran deal (5-9-19)
Rouhani’s warning to Trump (5-8-19)
Iran just said it won’t comply with parts of the landmark nuclear deal (5-8-19)
What is Trump’s Iran policy? Saber rattling? (2019)
Wanted: A Trump Policy for Iran (2019)
Trump’s dangerous obsession with Iran (18)
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